These 3 possible futures picture the food and fibre workforce in 2032, depending on how government and industry act. They're not mutually exclusive and aim to shed light on how the workforce may change over time. We explored additional scenarios for the aquaculture and red meat sectors.
3 possible futures
How we modelled the futures
NZIER used economy-wide TERM-NZ computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with assumptions based on our 3 possible future scenarios:
- Future 1: Business as usual
- Future 2: More technology
- Future 3: Transformation
We developed the assumption parameters using discussions with food and fibre sector industry representatives. We used workforce data from the year ending 31 March 2020 to forecast through to 2032.
What do the models mean?
Although the models provide numbers, we see them primarily as a qualitative high-level forecasts of sector trends. We're not trying to predict numbers of workers needed in specific roles, but to highlight the sector impacts of different scenarios.
For more information and discussion of the modelling, assumptions and results, download our workforce futures report.
Deeper sector specific analysis
Following the development of the sector-wide forecasts above, MPI commissioned NZIER to consider deeper sector-specific analysis for the aquaculture and red meat sectors.